Getting off at Rockbank: should we go all the way to Melton?

Infrastructure Victoria's vision for rail extensions (source)

Recommendation 74 of Infrastructure Victoria's 30-year strategy was to "Extend rail services in Melbourne's western and northern growth areas" - specifically, they recommend extending electrified Metro trains to Wyndham Vale, Rockbank, and Beveridge. Why Rockbank and not Melton? Good question. 

IV say "there is a compelling case to introduce electrified suburban services along the western corridor as far as Rockbank, or alternatively to a new station at the proposed Mt Atkinson activity centre" by 2031, and that "strong underlying population growth may require later electrification of the western line to Melton in the 2040s." They also recommend that the project "include better bus connections to nearby areas, such as Rockbank North and Plumpton". 

What's their rationale for only going to Rockbank or Mt Atkinson, and not electrifying all the way to Melton in one go? They claim that "terminating a new electrified service at Mt Atkinson encourages more gradual westward housing growth, compared with complete electrification to Melton." There are several problems with this claim. The first is that there's no real evidence that electrifying the line to Melton would accelerate urban sprawl - none of Melbourne's fastest-growing areas have electrified railways, and most of them don't even have half-decent buses. Demand is high, and developers are meeting that demand by building housing wherever they're allowed to - if we want to reduce urban sprawl (and I agree we should) then we need to address those fundamental drivers. 

Construction between Rockbank and Melton is already happening (via OpenStreetMap)

The second problem with their rationale is that all of the land along the rail corridor between Rockbank and Melton stations either has already been developed, is currently being built on, or has detailed development plans ready to go. Land further away from the corridor may take longer, but anywhere with strong rail access will be developed well before 2031 regardless of whether the line is electrified. Hell, it'll probably all be developed by 2025. So this idea that electrification might accelerate westward expansion is pretty moot, because by the earliest time they could conceivably build Melton electrification (the opening of MM1 in 2025) Melton will already be a contiguous part of Melbourne's west. 

What effect would delaying Melton electrification actually have? It will contribute to the persistent problem of car-dependence in growth areas. The standard model is for new suburbs to be developed, and for families to start moving in, well before public transport access is provided. If an existing bus route already passes through the area - on an arterial road linking existing suburbs, for example - then they'll generally make sure it stops near these new houses, because that's relatively cheap and easy. But any actual reforms to the bus network - adding new routes that provide coverage away from the arterials, increasing frequencies of existing routes, etc - tends to happen a good decade or so after the first families move in. Rail access can be just as slow (if it ever comes). 

Households in growth areas need multiple cars just to get around (via ABC News)

The result is that people who live in these new developments become totally dependent on their cars to get around - so we see incredibly high levels of car ownership. In LGAs like Melton, Casey and Cardinia, more than 68% of households have 2 or more cars, compared to 35% across Greater Melbourne as a whole; in fact around 25% of households in those LGAs have 3 or more cars, compared to 16% across Greater Melbourne. Families living in these areas need a car for both parents and a car for each adult kid, just to be able to get around independently, because there's no other option. By the time the public transport finally comes 10+ years later, they've already bought these cars and gotten used to driving them everywhere. 

So, yeah. Improving bus access to the existing stations is hugely important and shouldn't really be tied to the electrification project - it should be done ASAP, while the stations are still served by V/Line trains. And they definitely should build a new station at Mt Atkinson, though it probably does make sense to do this as part of the electrification project rather than in advance of it. But if we want to avoid the residents of these new developments becoming locked into car-dependence, full electrification to Melton really needs to happen as soon as possible. 

It's also worth remembering that Melton electrification is important for two different reasons - one is to provide a better service to Melton and the western suburbs, but the other is to provide a better service to Ballarat and other regional passengers - and IV acknowledges this. But stopping electrification at Rockbank would limit these regional benefits too. 

Peak overcrowding is a big issue on the Ballarat line

The two main problems that performing suburban duties cause for Ballarat trains are overcrowding and travel times. It's very common (or at least it was, pre-COVID) for Ballarat trains to be hugely crowded between Southern Cross and Melton - sometimes to the point of Ballarat passengers not even being able to squeeze on - and then relatively empty further out, because of the huge mismatch in demand in the two sections. And while the whole line contributes, Melton station itself is by far the biggest driver of this. The latest stats I have are from 2016-17 and passenger numbers will have risen since then; but at the time, Melton had 726,339 passenger boardings, and all the other stations on the line combined had only 441,992(1). If we don't electrify to Melton, we don't solve Ballarat's overcrowding problem - it's as simple as that. 

Meanwhile, having to stop at all those suburban stations turns what would otherwise be a ~10 minute trip between Melton and Sunshine into a ~20 minute trip - not just in the peaks but all day, every day. Any amount of electrification and quadding would help, but by bypassing the whole suburban section rather than just half of it, we get a much cleaner run, and shave another precious few minutes off - and if we want to be hitting targets like #59MinuteBallarat then we need all these little bottlenecks removed. 

All these issues, combined with considerations both political and operational, makes me think the government will recognise that it's best to electrify to Melton in one go. I don't have a crystal ball for when they'll decide to do it, but the government that's built it's reputation on "getting things done" doesn't seem likely to half-arse it. For the sake of passengers both suburban and regional, here's hoping I'm right. 

1. Stats obtained from Philip Mallis' blog. Ardeer, Deer Park, Caroline Springs and Rockbank had a total of 441,992 passengers in 2016-17; Cobblebank station hadn't been built at the time. 

More discussion on IV's 30-year strategy here